RALEIGH — Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour was asked Thursday if the path to the Stanley Cup — with two-time defending champion Florida not in the playoffs and Carolina the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed — was cleared for his team, especially the way the bracket has been laid out for them.
“I think that might have been the toughest matchup that you could ask for,” Brind’Amour said.
That’s not coach speak. If there was one possible first round matchup that could be deemed least favorable for Carolina, it was against Ottawa.
The Hurricanes-Senators matchup can be summed up in one meme: two Spider-Men pointing at each other.
Carolina and Ottawa aren’t mirror images of each other, but they’re pretty darn close.
The Hurricanes’ top scorer is center Sebastian Aho, with 80 points. The Senators’ No. 1 center, Tim Stutzle, led the way for them at 83. Carolina had two players with 70 or more points and six in all with at least 50. Ottawa has one at 71 points, and Claude Giroux was one point shy of being the team’s sixth with 50.
The Senators’ top six defensemen have totaled 181 points this year. The Hurricanes’ D corps is at 176 (though Jaccob Slavin played only 39 games).
Neither team has a goaltender who posted a .900 save percentage for the season, and there are question marks everywhere when it comes to the six goalies — Linus Ullmark, James Reimer and Leevi Merilainen for Ottawa; Frederik Andersen, Brandon Bussi and Pyotr Kochetkov — who could wind up in net at some point in the postseason.
Even the coaches are similar — two hard-nosed former players from the same era who played a combined 34 NHL seasons before transitioning behind the bench.
If a new hockey fan wanted to see what possession-driven hockey looks like, starting with Carolina or Ottawa is an ideal place.
When they go head to head? Who knows how their first round series will look, but we at least know they won’t be wearing the same superhero costume when on the ice together.
The forwards
As mentioned, these two teams mirror each other in plenty of ways, and that includes up front. The top two scoring lines feature loads of skill. Stutzle and Aho anchor the top lines, while power forwards Brady Tkachuk and Andrei Svechnikov each bring scoring and thump to the top six. There are also two veterans looking for the last jewel in their careers: Taylor Hall and Claude Giroux.
The most significant difference is size. Outside of Giroux, all of Ottawa’s top six forwards are more than 6 feet tall, while Seth Jarvis, Jackson Blake and Logan Stankoven are all under that benchmark. Still, plenty have doubted those three Hurricanes and have quickly found there are few players who better combine skill and determination.
Where things tilt is in the bottom six. Having Nikolaj Ehlers opposite Jordan Martinook on a line centered by Jordan Staal gives Carolina’s checking line some big-time oomph.
It will be interesting to see how Warren Foegele, acquired by the Senators ahead of the trade deadline, will perform against the team that drafted and developed him — and traded him away.
Advantage: Slight edge to Carolina
The defensemen
Ottawa’s Jake Sanderson has emerged as a Norris Trophy candidate, and Thomas Chabot’s speedy recovery from a broken arm gives the Senators a boost on a back end that’s pretty battered.
Tyler Kleven, who hasn’t played since April 2 due to an upper-body injury, could return during the series but probably won’t be available for Game 1. Nick Jensen suffered a knee injury in March and is expected to miss the entirety of the postseason.
That puts a dent in the Senators’ defense since Nikolas Matinpalo and Lassi Thomson will instead be pressed into action. Matinpalo — who won a bronze medal with Aho and Finland at the Olympics — played 50 games this season for Ottawa, but Thomson played just 11 games in the NHL this season.
The Hurricanes, meanwhile, rested players down the stretch and look to be ready to go with their normal top six. Jalen Chatfield has been banged up much of the season, and Jaccob Slavin may not be 100%, but everyone is playing with bumps and bruises this time of year.
Advantage: Pretty even if everyone was healthy, but edge Carolina
The goalies
Here is where things get interesting. Brind’Amour seems to be leaning toward Frederik Andersen as his Game 1 starter, but he was coy about that and his plan for the series. The Hurricanes have rotated goalies for much of the season, and it’s hard to overlook Brandon Bussi’s 31-6-2 record should Carolina go that way.
The Senators, meanwhile, have a red-hot Linus Ullmark to lean on. He enters the postseason on a four-game winning streak, having allowed just six goals during that run. But while Andersen — due to his time as the scapegoat-of-the-moment in Toronto earlier in his career — is often viewed as someone who has struggled in the postseason (he really hasn’t), Ullmark certainly has.
He’s 5-10 during the playoffs with a 3.28 goals-against average and .885 save percentage. He’s allowed three or more goals in 11 of his 16 appearances. He’s also faced the Hurricanes twice in the postseason, in 2022, and allowed four goals in both starts.
Still, Andersen’s regular season (16-14-5, .874 save percentage) and Bussi’s inexperience should give anyone pause.
Advantage: Slight edge to Ottawa
Special teams
Both teams have solid power plays, with Carolina entering the postseason at No. 4 in the league (24.9%), while Ottawa ranks eighth at 24.0%.
The Hurricanes hold a small advantage there, but it’s even bigger on the penalty kill. Carolina has been one of the league’s best kills during Brind’Amour’s tenure, but this season the team ranks No. 11 at 80.5%. The good news for the Hurricanes is that since Slavin returned to the lineup in mid-January, their PK has been third in the league.
Ottawa’s penalty kill, meanwhile, is near the bottom of the NHL at 75.7%, good for 29th. Being without Kleven, who is fourth among Senators defensemen in shorthanded ice time per game, is another ding against Ottawa.
Advantage: Clear Carolina edge
Overview
This has all the makings of a fun series. Stutzle is a budding star, Tkachuk is a menace around the net, and Sanderson is entering elite defenseman territory.
All that said, it feels like the Senators are just a step behind the Hurricanes in their progression toward contention. Carolina has a few more horses, more playoff experience, home-ice advantage and a healthier lineup. Ottawa dragged the Maple Leafs to six games last year, losing twice in overtime and once on a late third period goal, and the Senators should be better for that experience.
But not good enough to overcome the loaded Hurricanes.
Prediction: Hurricanes in 6
