The power of incumbency is not talked about a lot in politics, primarily because it’s something that is understood without needing to discuss it. Odds are, if you are the incumbent and you’re running for reelection, you’re in a much better position to win your primary (if there even is one) and general election battles than you are if you are the challenger.
Or so we thought.
Over the last 10 years or so, the power of incumbency has taken some notable hits, with two that come to mind for me coming out of New York City.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, for instance, stunned political observers in June 2018 when she defeated House Democratic Caucus Chairman Joe Crowley, a 20-year veteran of Congress who had been floated as the next House leader, in New York’s 14th District Democratic primary. The New York Times called it “the most significant loss for a Democratic incumbent in more than a decade, and one that will reverberate across the party and the country.”
In 2022, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney lost his reelection bid to Congress in the general election to Republican State Assemblyman Mike Lawler. With that loss, Maloney, who had served for 10 years, became “the first chair of either party’s House campaign committee to lose a race for re-election since the early 1990s,” the Times also reported.
The March 3 primary here in North Carolina was not a good night either for incumbents in the General Assembly, with nine — three Democrats and six Republicans — losing their reelection bids well before the general election. Seven were on the House side, and two were on the Senate side.
The most notable and talked about, of course, was longtime Senate Leader Phil Berger (R-Eden), who lost to longtime Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page. But it took about three weeks to confirm it.
Primary night closed with Berger trailing Page by a mere two votes. By the March 13 canvass deadline, Page’s lead had increased to 23 votes after provisionals were reviewed, overseas and military ballots were counted, and absentee ballots that needed them were cured.
After a machine recount and random sample hand-to-eye recounts were done, the results remained unchanged. Berger opted against a legal battle and conceded last Tuesday.
As to how Page was able to pull off the win, opinions vary, though I believe part of the reason was that MAGA voters in Senate District 26 had two Donald Trump-backed candidates to choose from, with Berger receiving an official endorsement from the president and Page receiving an unofficial one from Trump, who also praised Page when he was urging primary voters to back Berger.
There was also the budget stalemate between Berger and GOP N.C. House leaders, along with a controversial Berger-backed casino proposal in 2023.
Page supporters I’ve talked to in the district tell me it was the attempted casino deal, the perception that Berger increasingly had more of an eye on Washington, D.C., than North Carolina, and the general feeling that he had been in power for too long and was “out of touch” that were big factors in his shocking defeat.
Whether those perceptions are reality depends on whom you talk to. But one thing is certain: Berger was instrumental in many GOP legislative victories on issues like lower taxes, redistricting (as recently as late 2025), crime, the Second Amendment, ICE cooperation, anti-DEI in public schools, increased oversight of higher education, pro-life causes and photo/voter ID.
But while his political legacy will be studied, analyzed, talked about and likely emulated in future elections, it looks like the power of incumbency became an albatross around Berger’s neck that he couldn’t shake despite his many notable accomplishments.
North Carolina native Stacey Matthews has also written under the pseudonym Sister Toldjah and is a media analyst and regular contributor to RedState and Legal Insurrection.
