RALEIGH — For the second consecutive presidential cycle, North Carolina voters split their ballots by electing a Republican president but a Democratic governor.
Voters continued to vote Democrat at the top of the statewide ballot, electing a Democrat to the lieutenant governor and attorney general spots; Democrat Mo Green also won state superintendent. The pickups turned the 10-seat Council of State into a 50/50 split down party lines, whereas Republicans held six seats heading into the November election.
During a press conference held at the N.C. Republican Party Headquarters the day after the election, Senate Leader Phil Berger (R-Eden) and Rep. Destin Hall (R-Caldwell) talked about the ticket-splitting possibly being linked to Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s gubernatorial campaign issues.
“I don’t think there’s any question that the wall of money that came in against Mark Robinson had a significant impact,” said Berger. “I also think that the news story out of CNN had a significant impact in that race and probably had some slight impact in some of the other races, particularly statewide races.”
In mid-September, CNN released a report alleging Robinson referred to himself as “a black NAZI,” among other potentially scandalous comments, on a pornography message board. Robinson denied all of the allegations, hired an attorney and is suing CNN for defamation for $20 million.
The report dropped Robinson’s polling numbers. On Election Day, most polls had Robinson behind Democrat Josh Stein by 15 points or more. Unofficial results show Robinson was 14.68% behind Stein, and he lagged in votes compared to other Republicans in statewide races.
Stein also significantly outraised and outspent Robinson, a gap compounded when the Republican Governors Association pulled its ad buys for Robinson following the CNN report.
Hall linked Robinson’s poor polling performance as a trigger for the Stein campaign to transfer about $12 million to the North Carolina Democratic Party (NCDP). That cash transfer allowed Democrats to then spend more money targeting General Assembly races.
“There’s no question that moved the needle,” Hall said of the money shift from Stein to the NCDP.
In the legislature, Republicans are currently holding onto a supermajority in the Senate but appear to have lost it in the House by a single seat. One House seat and two Senate seats and the Supreme Court race are still being sorted out, and final results may take time amid provisional and absentee ballot tabulations.
Berger had pushed back on the idea that Republicans had a poor showing, pointing to another judicial sweep even though Judge Jefferson Griffin’s Supreme Court win is not finalized. Griffin’s opponent, Cooper appointee Associate Justice Allison Riggs, has not yet conceded.
“All things being equal, good Republican candidates can win by several points. I think the judicial races show that more clearly than anything else,” said Berger, underscoring that North Carolina is a “default Republican state.”
Jim Blaine, the co-founder of Raleigh political consulting and public relations agency The Differentiators, told North State Journal not every loss can be chalked up to Robinson.
“I don’t think it’s fair to look at every loss and say, ‘Well, that was Mark Robinson’s fault,’” said Blaine, who used to be a top adviser to Berger. “I mean, every race is kind of driven by some macro things like Robinson, like how Trump and Harris did in North Carolina; each is its own thing. And yeah, they are smaller considerations and campaign decisions and funding and candidate quality matter.
“Let me put it this way: Probably would be foolish just to point every loss at Mark Robinson and say it’s his fault, dust their hands off, and walk away and not trying to learn anything else from that election.”
Blaine also acknowledged some of Robinson’s impact on down-ballot races.
“You can’t have the top of your ticket get clobbered by 15 points and not have an impact,” said Blaine. “Because as soon as somebody breaks from running a straight ticket, it kind of gives them mentally permission to start bouncing around.”
Stein’s unofficial margin of victory over Robinson is 814,382 — three times the percentage margin and amount of votes Gov. Roy Cooper beat Lt. Gov. Dan Forest by in 2020.
Blaine agreed with Hall that money was a factor in every close race but differed in opinion regarding statewide races.
“It seemed like in most of the statewide races, the swing voters went for boring, and in the primary, voters looked for exciting,” said Blaine. “And money’s a factor too. If you look at most of the races, the people that spend the most money or had the most money spent on their behalf collectively won as well.”
As to why voters trended toward Republican judicial candidates, Blaine said he thought “a lot of it boils down to their concerns about public safety,” and voters see what is happening in other areas of the country.
When it came to the difference between the Supreme Court race and the race for attorney general, with Democrat Jeff Jackson beating Republican Dan Bishop, Blaine felt Robinson was more of a factor for Bishop.
“(Griffin) was the only person that got tied to Robinson in any substantial way that didn’t lose in the statewide races,” said Blaine. “And they didn’t have him saying anything about Robinson like Dan (Bishop).”
Blaine also thinks the issue of abortion played somewhat of a role in the Supreme Court race. Riggs ran ads trying to tie Griffin to abortion policy, a move that has been met with an ethics complaint filed against her near the end of October, alleging she violated the Code of Judicial Conduct.
“I think that probably impacted Griffin’s race and the AG’s race more than the other races because I think most people probably correctly feel like judicial races have more to do with abortion policy moving forward, perhaps, than the legislative races do,” said Blaine.
