DURHAM – Way back in 1989, Steve Spurrier coached Duke to an 8-4 record, including a trip to the All-American Bowl in Birmingham. It was the second straight winning season in Durham for the Ole’ Ball Coach. That earned him a job coaching SEC power Florida, his alma mater.
Barry Wilson replaced Spurrier as Duke coach and struggled, ending Duke’s brief flirtation with competitive football. The Blue Devils would go from back-to-back winning seasons to having one season over .500 in the next 23 years, until David Cutcliffe rebuilt the program from the ruins.
Now, Duke needs to find a way to keep history from repeating itself, as Mike Elko left for Texas A&M after coaching the Blue Devils to back-to-back winning records, ending with a trip to a bowl game in Birmingham.
Last Year
Elko convinced a large group of Blue Devil seniors to return for their fifth, COVID year. The Blue Devils opened the year with an upset of Clemson and sprinted out to a 4-0 record. An injury to quarterback Riley Leonard in a loss to Notre Dame sent the season off track. Duke finished with a 7-5 regular season record before beating Troy in the Birmingham Bowl.
Changes and Newcomers
Manny Diaz, who has been one of the top defensive coordinators in the country, with stops at Texas, Mississippi State, Miami and Penn State, replaces Elko. However, his only previous head coaching experience ended with mixed results. Miami fired him following a 7-5 season, his second straight winning campaign. He had three bowl appearances and a 21-15 mark with the Hurricanes, who have gone 12-13 in the post-Diaz era.
Elko’s departure wasn’t popular with the players, and Duke lost plenty of talent, including Leonard and running back Jordan Waters to the transfer portal.
Quarterback Maalik Murphy, who arrives as a transfer from Texas, is the most significant newcomer. Diaz also added running back Star Thomas from New Mexico State and defensive tackle Kendy Charles from Liberty.
Players to Watch
Duke returns three of its top four receivers from last year, led by Jordan Moore, who had 62 catches and eight touchdowns. While Waters is gone from the backfield, Jaquez Moore brings back 674 rushing yards and six scores.
On defense, Duke returns its top three tacklers from last year in linebacker Tre Freeman, safety Jaylen Stinson and linebacker Nick Morris.
Best Case
Duke under Elko prided itself on being tough and disciplined, relying on a tough defense and an offense that could produce enough big plays to pull away.
The defense has plenty of rebuilding work to do, including replacing the entire D-line, but there are few people better to do that than Diaz, who has worked magic on defenses across college football. The offense has the potential to be even more explosive, with an increased number of skill position players over last year. Duke’s schedule is manageable, and the Blue Devils could flirt with 10 wins and a major bowl, finishing near to the top of the ACC.
Worst Case
Any coach will tell you that football teams are as good as their trench players, and Duke is rebuilding both lines—offensive and defensive—from the foundation. There’s plenty of talent on hand, both home-grown and portal-produced, but they’ll need to find the chemistry on the field to win the battles up front. If they don’t, the Blue Devils could find themselves fighting to avoid being on the wrong side of .500, just like they were back when Spurrier left.
Key Games
Duke’s schedule could help it get the Diaz era off to a fast start, but there are also potential potholes scattered throughout.
Sept. 6 at Northwestern – After what should be an easy home win against Elon in the opener, Duke must travel to the Wildcats, who finished 8-5 last year. It will be an early test of just how well Diaz’s rebuild is going. A win could mean a 4-0 run of the non-conference slate to start the year.
Sept. 28 vs. UNC –The Blue Devils will host the Tar Heels in a rivalry game that comes in the season’s first month. Elko never beat Carolina, who has won five straight in the series.
Oct. 18 vs. Florida State – The home win over Clemson vaulted Duke into national prominence, although the Blue Devils went on to lose potential big games against Notre Dame and Florida State later in the year. Now, Duke gets a mid-October home date against the Noles, which could push later games against Miami and NC State into the high-stakes stratosphere.
Outlook
On paper, this is a strong Duke team that could compete for one of the ACC’s signature bowl berths. However, the newcomers (including Diaz) need to get to know each other quickly.
