When Duke took the floor for its ACC Tournament matchup with NC State, freshman guard Jared McCain had a large bandage over one eye.
During pregame warmups, he had been doing a dribbling drill with teammate Jaylen Blakes, and the two clashed heads, opening up a gash on McCain’s brow that required four stitches.
That seems symbolic of Duke’s stretch run this season, as the Blue Devils have just not seemed to get on the same page.
A month ago, Duke was 21-5, challenging for the ACC lead and ranked No. 7 in the country. Since then, the Blue Devils have gone 3-3, lost their regular season finale and ACC Tournament opener and are No. 4 … in the South Region.
Duke has struggled shooting, struggled defending and had trouble finding the gear that Blue Devil teams always seem to have when it’s crunch time.
“Overall, look, I can go through the details of the game,” coach Jon Scheyer said after Duke’s ACC Tournament loss to NC State. “I think for us, though, it’s about the competitive fire you need to have in the postseason.”
What’s wrong with Duke? And can it be fixed in time to avoid a season-ending loss?
“I don’t feel we handled what we could control tonight. No doubt in my mind,” Scheyer said. “If we want that feeling a week from now where you lose or you exit the tournament where you didn’t control what you could control, that would be a real shame. I’m not going down that way. I know these guys aren’t going down that way.”
That sounds good on paper, but there are 15 teams in the South Region holding axes, ready to yell, “Timber”.
Opening round matchup
Duke likes to use its opening round games as a way to get well, running up the score on a hapless lower seed. In their last 21 first-round games, Duke has won by an average of 21 points—and yes, that includes the upset losses to Mercer and Lehigh. Four times, they’ve won by 40 or more points.
That may be a tough ask against Vermont. The 4-seed Blue Devils will be nothing new to the Catamounts, who have played 4-seeds in three of their last four trips to the Big Dance, losing to Arkansas by four, Florida by seven and Purdue by 10. Going farther back, they upset 4-seed Syracuse in 2005.
Vermont plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking No. 348 in tempo. They rank among the nation’s best in virtually every defensive category, holding opponents to less than one point per possession.
The good news for Duke is that the Blue Devils have played slower and done well this season. Charlotte ranks No. 356 in tempo, and Virginia is No. 362—dead last. Duke won games against both, by scores of 80-56 and 73-48, respectively.
Later in the weekend
If Duke survives Vermont’s upset attempt, the Blue Devils will get the winner of Wisconsin-James Madison.
Wisconsin has the size to match up with Duke, led by seven-footer Steven Crowl. The Badgers like to slow it down as well, ranking in the 300s in tempo. Wisconsin’s Achilles heel, however, is perimeter defense. The Badgers allow opponents to hit at a .371 clip from outside, which ranks No. 344 in the nation. Duke is No 16 in the country in three-point accuracy, although the team has been in a shooting slump of late, hitting just 29-of-92, .315, over the last four games.
Wisconsin went 2-7 from the start of February until early March, before the Badgers recovered to win four of their last six.
The 12-seed, James Madison, may actually be the scarier matchup for Duke, and not just because the team is nicknamed the Dukes. JMU has 12 road wins on the year, including at Michigan State. The Dukes have won 13 straight, force turnovers on defense and shut down shooters. They are No. 23 in effective shooting defense and No. 2 in three-point defense. They also shoot the lights out from three and protect the ball on offense while playing fast. They also have the one thing that strikes fear in the heart of March favorites—experienced guards.
Down the line
If the Blue Devils make it to Dallas, they’ll likely face top seed Houston in the Sweet 16. Stop us if you’ve heard this before, but the Cougars are another team that plays slow and grinds it out on defense. That’s putting it mildly—Houston is the best defensive team in the country.
Survive that and all that’s standing between Duke and the final four is either Marquette—a defense-first team with senior guards—or Kentucky.
In other words, Duke is rapidly running out of time to get that competitive fire lit.
