Perhaps we’ve all grown too cynical — and too given to conspiracy theories — as we’ve been buffeted by the last six years of trench war politics. Nonetheless, I worry that the GOP is about to fall victim to a Democrat-set trap with serious consequences.
Democrats have understandably concluded that Donald Trump is their best key to 2024 electoral success. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote while securing an electoral vote majority. He then led the GOP to successive losses of the House, Senate and the presidency while simultaneously galvanizing the far-left wing of the Democratic party. In the face of what would now seem to be insurmountable reelection odds for Joe Biden — i.e., three years of incompetent leadership, a weakened economy, an unprecedented immigration crisis, physical decrepitude and charges of serious corruption — the Democrats’ best hope for victory in 2024 is to run again against Trump.
Driven by their overpowering contempt for Trump, the Democrats have seemingly stumbled onto — or perhaps devilishly devised ― a strategy to secure the GOP nomination for him. Fully utilizing the politicization of the Department of Justice and the FBI, which was exposed in the recent Durham Report, local, state and federal prosecutors have conspired to keep Trump in the forefront of electoral politics, to strengthen his Republican base and to inflame further the antipathy of the Democratic base. Never mind that the charges against Trump appear patently weak, that Trump’s treatment stands in marked contrast to that of Hilary Clinton and the Bidens, and that the hallowed tradition of blind American justice has been sorely trampled upon.
The immediate effect on the Republican 2024 nomination race has been to create enormous sympathy for Trump. The focus has been shifted to Trump and away from who is the best GOP candidate and who could most decisively defeat Biden. Republicans’ memories of the dysfunctionality of Trump’s four-year administration — his incessant, incoherent tweeting; his philosophical inconsistencies; and his uncivil verbal abuse of supporters and opponents alike — have all been washed away in a torrent of sympathy for Trump’s unfair victimization. The Democrats’ dream of opposing Trump in 2024 is now within sight.
But there may yet be a subsequent leg of this strategy. While Joe Biden shows no signs of voluntarily stepping down, it is not inconceivable that he might be forced to bow out in 2024. The Democratic Party may ultimately yield to the reality of Biden’s dismal poll ratings, his leadership failures, emerging evidence of his corruption and his physical decline. If this were to happen late in the 2024 race, the GOP could find itself burdened with Trump but facing a much stronger Democratic opponent than Biden.
Presumably, the Democrats would never turn to the hapless Kamala Harris or leftist lightning rods like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren or AOC. Instead, they would probably fall back on the “2020 Biden formula” of putting forth someone who would seem moderate but who could be counted on to implement the party’s leftist agenda. It would surely be someone much younger than Biden — or Trump. Gone would be the issue of Biden’s age. In its place would be the specter of Trump’s age. The Democrats would no longer be saddled with the impossible task of defending the Biden-Harris administration. They could happily revert to running against their favorite target — Donald Trump.
At this crucial point, the GOP’s challenge is to offer succor to Trump in his legal fights and simultaneously to refocus on nominating their best candidate for 2024. The country desperately needs a change in direction. It will not be a quick or easy fix. The task is daunting: reducing the size and scope of government, reducing federal spending, reigning in entitlements, rebuilding the military, cleaning up the DOJ and FBI, once again leading the free world, restoring law and order, and reigniting the sense of pride and hope in America. As Ron DeSantis noted recently, we need at least eight years (two terms) of Republican presidential and congressional leadership in order to secure a real change in direction.
The immediate pitfalls are apparent. Somehow Republicans will have to sidestep the Democrats’ “Trump trap,” affirm the best of Trump’s policies, keep Trump and his supporters within the GOP fold, and nominate a candidate with the discipline, focus, vision and track record both to win in 2024 and, most importantly, to lead us out of the Democrats’ failed leftist quagmire.
It won’t be easy.
