RALEIGH — Could a trio of races produce a shakeup in North Carolina’s congressional delegation?
As Republican fortunes continue to improve heading into the beginning of early voting on Thursday, three races could be closer than expected in the 2022 midterms: the 1st, 6th, and 14th Congressional Districts.
Originally forecasted as Democratic-leaning seats, the three races are coming down to the wire — and drawing more interest from political observers.
In the 1st District, Democratic state Sen. Don Davis and Republican Sandy Smith are locked in a battle for the seat of retiring Democratic U.S. Rep. G.K. Butterfield.
Davis, who represents Pitt and Greene counties in the General Assembly, has been boosted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in his bid to hold the northeastern-area seat for the party.
Smith, who ran against Butterfield in 2020, overcame domestic violence allegations to win the May 17 primary but has faced an onslaught of negative advertising. In the race against Butterfield, Smith lost by approximately 30,000 votes, and the redrawing of the district has made it more friendly to Republicans due to demographic changes.
Yet while Smith has campaigned extensively after losing that race, the allegations have made for campaign fodder by the DCCC. As of this week, the Democratic committee has spent $2.2 million in television advertising seeking to make Smith untenable for voters in the district.
Davis has attempted to stay above the fray, highlighting his record and personal history as a minister and Air Force veteran.
In a forecast of the race national elections website DecisionDeskHQ said a declining black population will determine control of the district.
“Continuing population decline and shifts in the black belt counties (Bertie, Edgecombe, Halifax, Hertford, Northampton, Warren) are key to Republican chances here; Biden won these counties by 23.7%, while only carrying the rest by 0.6%,” the site said in July.
In the 6th District, first-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Kathy Manning is looking to fend off a challenge from veteran Christian Castelli, who has been running a more active campaign in recent weeks. Manning, who ran against U.S. Rep. Ted Budd in 2018 before winning a redrawn seat in 2020, saw the district boundaries change once again for her first reelection campaign. The new 6th District captures all of Guilford and Rockingham counties and parts of Forsyth and Caswell.
Castelli, a first-time candidate, prevailed in the May 17 primary over four other candidates. Touting his extensive military experience, he overhauled his campaign over the summer and is now touting his ability to “shake up Washington” in TV ads.
Manning is the only Democrat in the state on the DCCC’s Frontline list of potentially vulnerable incumbents.
In the 14th District, Democratic state Sen. Jeff Jackson looks to defeat Republican Pat Harrigan. Jackson, a loquacious tweeter who attempted a 100-county tour in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary before bowing out to Cheri Beasley, appeared to be on a glide path to a congressional seat. Harrigan, an Army veteran, has sought to make Jackson’s record in the state Senate a top issue.
Harrigan has noted Jackson’s lack of support from Democratic colleagues in the General Assembly while touting his experience as both a Green Beret and as a small business owner.
DecisionDeskHQ sees Castelli and Harrigan as less likely to win their seats than Smith. Their forecast gives Manning and Jackson a more than 90% chance to win. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) added both Castelli and Harrigan to their Young Guns program although neither has seen any outside spending on their behalf.
In previous Republican “wave” years, surprise winners have emerged. In 1994, longtime Democratic U.S. Rep. David Price lost to Republican Fred Heineman. Price would reclaim the seat two years later. More recently, the 2010 “Tea Party wave” saw Republican Renee Ellmers defeat Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge in a race that went to a recount. Ellmers would go on to serve three terms in Congress.
Both parties are spending money in the state’s toss-up race in the 13th Congressional District featuring Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel and Republican Bo Hines.
