NSJ/CPA poll shows tight statewide races as early voting nears completion

President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a campaign rally in Gastonia, N.C., Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020. (AP Photo/Nell Redmond)

RALEIGH — A new statewide poll shows tight races for president, governor and chief justice as early voting comes to a close in the Old North State. The North State Journal/Cardinal Point Analytics poll was conducted Oct. 27-28 from 750 likely N.C. voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.58 percent.

The poll comes amidst the final push by candidates to rally voters for election day on Nov. 3. President Donald Trump visited Fort Bragg near Fayetteville on Thursday as Hurricane Zeta impacted events across the state. Trump’s planned campaign rally in Cumberland County, scheduled for Thursday, has been moved to Monday, the day before the election.

The race for the state’s U.S. Senate seat shows incumbent Republican Thom Tillis ahead of Democrat Cal Cunningham by five percentage points, with 46% to Cunningham’s 41%. Libertarian candidate Shannon Bray recorded 6% support in the race with 5% of voters undecided in the most expensive race in history.

According to the poll, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has 46.84% support and Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Forest has 45.49% with 3.77% still undecided. The 1.35-point spread is within the poll’s 3.58-point margin of error.

Likewise, President Donald Trump holds a lead of 2% over former Vice President Joe Biden with less than 2% of voters undecided in the race for the White House.

Republican Mark Robinson leads Democratic state Rep. Yvonne Lewis Holley by a slim margin to replace Forest as lieutenant governor with 45% to 44%. Eleven percent of voters in the race say they are undecided.

In the lightly polled contest to become the chief justice of the state Supreme Court, Cooper’s appointed chief justice, Democrat Cheri Beasley, leads the current lone Republican on the court, Associate Justice Paul Newby, by one point as well — with 45% to Newby’s 44%.

After 15 days of early voting, more than 55% of N.C. voters have already cast their ballots through either absentee ballots or in-person early voting. Based on current statistics from the N.C. Board of Elections, registered Democrats make up 38.4% of the early votes, Republicans 31.6% and unaffiliated voters 30%. That Democratic share of the total vote is down over 4.5% from 2016 with unaffiliated voters increasing their share by a similar amount.


Who did you or do you intend to vote for:


48.05% Donald J. Trump — Republican
45.90% Joseph R. Biden — Democrat
2.02% Don Blankenship — Constitution
1.21% Jo Jorgensen — Libertarian
0.94% Howie Hawkins — Green
1.88% Unsure or Undecided

U.S. Senate

45.90% Thom Tills — Republican
40.65% Cal Cunningham — Democrat
6.06% Shannon Bray — Libertarian
1.88% Kevin Hayes — Constitutional
5.52% Unsure or Undecided


46.84% Roy Cooper — Democrat
45.49% Dan Forest — Republican
2.96% Al Pisano — Constitution
0.94% Steven DiFiore — Libertarian
3.77% Unsure or Undecided

Lt. Governor

44.82% Mark Robinson — Republican
43.61% Yvonne Lewis Holley — Democrat
11.57% Unsure or Undecided

Chief Justice

44.95% Cheri Beasley — Democrat
43.88% Paul Newby — Republican
11.17% Unsure or Undecided

North State Journal and Cardinal Point Analytics released a poll of state’s top races before the Nov. 3 general election

This North State Journal / Cardinal Point Analytics Poll was conducted by telephone and digital acquisition methods and consisted of a random sample of likely voters in North Carolina. The poll sampled approximately 750 likely voters. Seventy percent of the poll was conducted using automated dialing methods, while 30 percent was drawn from cell phone users.