Last year, East Carolina and Wake Forest went from eight-win seasons in 2022 to losing campaigns. The Deacs went 4-8, while the Pirates were 2-10. Meanwhile, Florida State went unbeaten in the ACC to take the conference title.
While these developments may have taken some college football fans by surprise, loyal North State Journal readers were giving knowing nods. After all, they’d know it was going to happen since our annual August season prediction, which calculates the win-loss record for each ACC team and North Carolina FBS program based on the preseason watch lists.
In late July, each of the 16 major awards—everything from the Maxwell player of the year award to the Ray Guy award, given to the top college punter—lists two to three dozen players who are expected to contend for their award. A total of more than 300 players receive watch list mentions each offseason. And several years ago, the NSJ discovered that using lists of good players on each team’s roster is actually a surprisingly accurate way to predict how well a team will do. Basically, the more award-worthy players a team has on its roster, the better it will be.
For instance, UNC opened with a game against Minnesota. And, while neither team is releasing a depth chart for the game, a look at the watch lists shows us that UNC have a total of 12 watch list entries. The Gophers have eight. So the Tar Heels, with a 12-8 edge in watch-listed players, have the talent edge and would be expected to win, which they did—barely.
Does the model work? Well, we’re not guaranteeing any windfalls if you use it as a tool in your newly legalized online gambling, but it’s been surprisingly reliable in the past.
Here were the hits for last year’s predictions
(A “toss up” means that a team and its opponent had the same number of watch listers.)
It was overly optimistic for UNC and App
And overly pessimistic for Wake
Around the ACC, Florida State was predicted to go 7-0 with a toss up, and the toss up went the Noles’ way as well, giving FSU an 8-0 league record. Syracuse and Clemson were underperformers, while Georgia Tech did much better than expected.
So what can we expect for 2024? After poring over the watch lists, we’re predicting four teams in North Carolina will be headed to bowl games.
The other three teams in the state will be hoping our model is wrong this season.
Those results may seem surprising. Duke has more watch listers than ECU, but the Blue Devils will win three fewer games? How is that possible? The answer lies in strength of schedule. Three of ECU’s opponents—Tulsa, Norfolk State and Temple—have no watch listers at all. Another two—North Texas and Charlotte—have just one. Duke, meanwhile, plays six teams—UNC, NC State, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami and Georgia Tech—with more than 10 watch listers on their respective rosters.
Here’s a look at the strength of schedule for the teams in North Carolina. The number is the total watch listers on opponents’ rosters, so higher means a tougher schedule.
Looking at the ACC, we have three new teams added to the mix. Here’s how the new-look ACC shakes out
Miami is projected to have an unbeaten season, thanks to a talent-packed roster and weak schedule. Clemson, UNC, Virginia Tech and FSU all appear to also be contenders for a College Football Playoff berth.
The league can expect 10 bowl bids, with NC State and SMU having 10-win seasons, while Louisville, Syracuse and Virginia will also be headed for the postseason.
The other two league newcomers—Cal and Stanford—can expect losing seasons, while Pitt and Wake will be hard-pressed to earn a league win this season. But perhaps the most frustrating season will be in Atlanta. Despite having 10 watch listers on the roster, Georgia Tech will go just 4-8, thanks to a schedule that includes both Notre Dame and Georgia and features a schedule strength with 27 more watch listers than any other team in the league.
So, in January, when everyone else is trying to sort out the results of a wild and crazy season, keep in mind—you read it here first.
