Once again, the path to a national championship in the women’s NCAA Tournament will run through North Carolina.
Duke and UNC will host the first and second rounds, while the state’s other bids, NC State and High Point, will look to pull off upsets on the road this weekend.
The paths for each local team will bring flash backs, big time matchups and opportunities for surprises. Here’s a rundown of each team’s path to the Final Four in Phoenix.
Duke
Duke earned the three seed in the Sacramento 2 bracket, joining a region with No. 1 UCLA and No. 2 LSU.
The Blue Devils will be eyeing a revenge tour as the region hosts three of their defeats.
Should Duke handle No. 14 Charleston at home Friday at 11:30 a.m. as expected, it can get its first taste of vengeance in the second round against No. 6 Baylor. The Bears beat Duke 58-52 at a neutral site in the season opener as Baylor’s Taliah Scott dropped 24 points, and the Blue Devils shot 29% from the floor.
In the Sweet 16, Duke could get another shot at LSU, which used a 31-point second quarter to flip the ACC/SEC Challenge matchup in Durham.
If the Blue Devils reach the Elite Eight, they could possibly rematch UCLA, which handed Duke arguably one of its worst losses of the season (89-59). Without star center Lauren Betts, Gabriela Jaquez and Charlisse Leger-Walker combined for 43 points to dominate Duke.
In the event the Blue Devils complete their payback run, a very challenging group of teams (No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Louisville or No. 4 West Virginia) could emerge out of the Fort Worth 3 bracket and meet Duke in the Final Four.
North Carolina
UNC will surprisingly host the first two rounds as a four seed in the Fort Worth 1 bracket.
The Tar Heels will face No. 13 Western Illinois in the first round Friday at 5:30 p.m, and the winner will take on the victor of No. 5 Maryland and No. 12 Murray State Sunday.
But looking ahead, next weekend’s Sweet 16 could be UNC’s toughest test all season.
Should both teams capitalize on home-court advantage, the Tar Heels and UConn, the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed, will compete for a spot in the Elite Eight.
Led by North Carolina’s own Sarah Strong (18.5 points per game) and star guard Azzi Fudd (17.7 points per game), the unbeaten Huskies have been on a tear, winning their last six games by at least 30 points. UConn has won its last three ranked games (Tennessee, Iowa and USC) by over 20 points, and it boasts the largest point differential (average points scored and allowed) in the nation (38.3).
If UNC were to get past UConn, it could meet a few dangerous teams in the Elite Eight, including No. 2 Vanderbilt, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 6 Notre Dame, which defeated the Tar Heels this season and nearly knocked off Duke in the ACC tournament earlier this month.
Awaiting in the Final Four could be No. 1 South Carolina from the Sacramento 4 bracket, which edged UNC in a 91-82 exhibition match in the preseason, No. 2 Iowa or No. 3 TCU.
NC State
The path for NC State, the seven seed in the Fort Worth 3 bracket, is a familiar one.
The Wolfpack will begin their tournament run against No. 10 Tennessee in Ann Arbor, Michigan Friday at 8 p.m. NC State won its season opener over the Volunteers 80-77 thanks to a go-ahead bucket by Khamil Pierre and clutch free throws by Zamareya Jones in the final minute. Tennessee could be a desperate opponent as it has lost seven straight games entering the tournament.
NC State could then see No. 2 Michigan, the hosting team, in the second round.
Should the Wolfpack survive to the Sweet 16, they could face an ACC foe in No. 3 Louisville. NC State fell to the Cardinals in overtime 88-80 on Jan. 18. The Wolfpack jumped out to a 23-14 lead in the first quarter, but they couldn’t slow down Louisville’s Imari Berry, who dropped 33 points.
If NC State could correct the wrongs of that first meeting with Louisville, it could face the likes of No. 1 Texas, No. 4. West Virginia or No. 5 Kentucky in the Elite Eight.
Beyond that point, the winner of the Sacramento 2 bracket, which could be UCLA, LSU or a familiar foe in Duke, will stand in the way of a remarkable run to the national title game.
High Point
High Point, the 15 seed in the Fort Worth 1 bracket, has arguably the toughest path out of North Carolina’s tournament teams.
The Panthers, making their second straight NCAA Tournament appearance, will face off against No. 2 Vanderbilt, the host, in the first round Saturday at 7 p.m.
Should they pull off their first upset of the postseason, they’ll have to do it again against either No. 7 Illinois or No. 10 Colorado. Then, the likes Notre Dame or Ohio State would await High Point in the Sweet 16.
High Point’s remaining path could be UConn or UNC in the Elite Eight and the best of a Sacramento 4 bracket headed by South Carolina in the Final Four. The Panthers’ chances at deep run are a long shot, but it’s March.
