There is an alternate reality where the Saints were three points better. A long Charlie Smyth field goal in the second quarter goes through, and New Orleans beats Atlanta by one in Week 18.
That’s the butterfly, flapping its wings, and up in Charlotte, it might bring a major change in the weather.
That result would put the Tampa Bay Bucs in the playoffs, instead of the Panthers. Tampa had beaten Carolina in a win-and-you’re-in game for the Panthers one day earlier. Instead of breaking one of the longest playoff droughts in the NFL, the Panthers would have finished a season where they made progress but finished with a losing record.
Three points, over which the Panthers had no control—weren’t even suited up for the game—and we’d be in a very different place right now.
After the loss in Tampa, fiery Panthers owner David Tepper reportedly stormed out of the stadium, refusing to acknowledge bystanders greeting him. According to some reports, part of his rage was over the officiating in the game, but he was also supposedly frustrated with his team’s performance. Some observers on social media speculated that changes could be coming after the Panthers fell short every time they controlled their own destiny.
Smyth’s second quarter kick goes through, and we might have the team searching for another new coach, or a new GM. Quarterback Bryce Young could be faced with the prospect of another new offense to learn, another new voice to hear. He could also be wondering about his own job security, if a non-playoff Panthers team decided not to renew his fifth-year option.
In other words, while this year was undoubtedly a success for the Panthers, it was not an unqualified one. The team is still on its way back, and early in the process. Things breaking the right way at season’s end shouldn’t blur that as we look to the future.
Here are some areas that would seem like much bigger problems right now if Smyth’s kick went through:
Consistency
The Panthers alternated wins and losses for 10 straight weeks—more than half the season. Dramatic highlight wins over Dallas, Green Bay and the Rams were often followed by the team laying an egg—a blowout to Buffalo, a Monday Night Football shellacking by the 49ers, two upset losses to the Saints and back-to-back season ending losses when the team needed just one win to clinch a playoff spot.
“I think just as a team, we weren’t as consistent as we wanted to be on a game-to-game basis,” GM Dan Morgan said. “But I think that’s part of what happens when you have a young team. You have a young team that is building continuity and kind of figuring themselves out.”
New holes for next season
Rico Dowdle, a 1,000-yard rusher in his first season with the Panthers and a hero of several of those dramatic wins, seemed to grow frustrated sharing time with Chuba Hubbard. He’s a free agent this offseason and indicated after the playoff loss that his declining number of carries as the season went on could be a factor in his decision.
“When you have two backs that you trust, you want to make sure they both touch the ball, and that was the approach we took,” coach Dave Canales said, in response to a question about Dowdle’s reported unhappiness over workload.
Left tackle Ickey Ekwonu ruptured his patella tendon in the playoff game and needs knee surgery. “It’s significant,” Canales said, and Morgan called his status “month-to-month.”
The team wouldn’t give a timeline, but at least the start of the season is in jeopardy for him, if not the full year or a large portion of it. Canales said that Ekwonu’s status “certainly is something we have to consider just depending on the duration of the injury” as the team plans offseason roster moves.
Old holes to fill
The team was in the bottom dozen in the league in most run defense categories. The Panthers have already said defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero will return, but the team needs to be stronger up front on defense.
Despite Bryce Young’s big step forward, the passing game also ranked in the lower 12 in most categories on offense. There are concerns over Xavier Legette, a first-round pick two years ago, and whether he is capable of being a top-two option alongside Tet McMillan, who had an outstanding rookie year. As the year wound down, Carolina was more comfortable throwing to undrafted reserve receiver Jalen Coker. The team will have to decide if he is the answer, or if they need a more established playmaker in that role.
“Xavier, it took him until his senior year to really start developing and coming into his own at South Carolina,” Morgan said. “So, I think we take a patient approach with those guys. We let them develop and keep getting better. We work with them and keep coaching them, developing them, and helping them out.”
Uncertain future
Smyth’s kick missed, and we have the reality that gave us. In another world, however, the team would face uncertainty as it headed into the offseason. That uncertainty exists in this reality too, even if the playoff hangover makes it harder to see.
