RALEIGH — After a year of economic uncertainty, North Carolina is heading into 2026 with a different kind of momentum — one driven less by guesswork and more by the breakneck expansion of artificial intelligence, the data centers powering it and the consumer spending tied to that wealth.
That was the message from Tom Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, who spoke to business leaders in Raleigh during his annual economic outlook. The Richmond Fed monitors banking and broader economic conditions across a district that includes the state’s major metros, including Raleigh and Charlotte.
Barkin said 2025 felt like a year when businesses were stuck in limbo.
“It was hard to put your foot on the gas when you didn’t know what was around the next curve,” Barkin said, comparing the year to driving through fog. He said many companies “spent the year on the side of the road with their hazards on.”
Now, he said, businesses have more clarity around tariffs and more confidence that consumer demand is real — even if that demand is being driven by a narrower slice of the economy than usual.
Retail spending remains strong, unemployment has stayed historically low, and the U.S. economy has continued to grow, Barkin said, describing the mood as more optimistic than it was a year ago.
But that optimism comes with an asterisk.
Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo working in corporate and investment banking, said much of the growth is concentrated in industries tied to AI and the tech ecosystem surrounding it.
“When you look at the industries that aren’t part of that big build-out of AI and tech, it’s a little bit demoralizing,” Quinlan said.
North Carolina has become one of the country’s most active markets for AI-related infrastructure, including a surge of data center projects. Among the biggest moves: Amazon’s $10 billion commitment tied to data center investment in the state.
That has helped push job growth in key sectors. North Carolina added nearly 88,000 jobs in the year ending in October, according to state data, with professional and business services and construction among the biggest gainers.
Quinlan said concerns about an AI bubble are growing, and a market correction could have real consequences because stock ownership — and much of the consumer spending it supports — is concentrated among higher-income households.
Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of the U.S. economy, Barkin said, meaning any shift that causes households to pull back would ripple quickly. Barkin also noted that consumer sentiment remains weak, citing a University of Michigan survey that shows confidence levels lower than during the 2008 financial crisis.
North Carolina’s unemployment rate stood at 3.8% in November below the national rate of 4.6%, according to the N.C. Commerce Department.
