Recently I read several news items that convinced me that the foreign and economic policies of the United States government are on collision courses with themselves.
1. “(Marco) Rubio wants allies urged to restrict immigration. The State Department has ordered its diplomats in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand to press their host governments to restrict most immigrants and to file reports if the governments appear to be overly supportive of immigrants.” The New York Times, Nov. 28.
2. On the same page of The Times, this article: “The Biggest Secret in British Society. Immigration is plummeting, not rising.” It is dropping in 2025 from 640,000 to 204,000, and it is going much lower in 2026 under new policies of the Labor government.
3. From the December report of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity (CTUP) is news that the People’s Republic of China will impose, in January, a 13% tax on condoms. Fifty years ago, the Chinese Communists imposed a “one child” policy. It resulted in coerced abortions, infanticide (mostly girls), forced sterilization and massive fines for a second child. In the last decade, that “one-child” policy went to the “two-child” and then “three-child” policy. The People’s Republic has new incentives for prospective parents, promising child care services from nurseries to kindergartens and marriage-related services. In 2024, the population of China actually fell by several million for the first time in 50 years.
4. The fourth “news” appears every other day. Social Security is in trouble. A few decades ago, there were 16 workers for every retiree. Now it is less than three workers for every retiree (and going down to 2.5). Most politicians have promised not to cut benefits or raise taxes and recently voted for the OBBB to exempt some taxation on Social Security benefits for a few seniors. At some point, those under age 40 will rise in revolt over their elders transferring $38 trillion of debt to their descendants to the third and fourth generations.
To put all this together requires understanding population demographics. A society needs an average of 2.1 births over time for each woman during her lifetime to maintain its population. The United States fertility rate is now at 1.6. The North Carolina fertility rate is about 1.8. All of Europe is below replacement level, as well as Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Our allies in the western Pacific — Taiwan, Japan and South Korea — have even lower rates. South Korea is in last place in the world at just 0.7 children per woman. South Korea is rapidly committing demographic suicide. The rest of the “West” is slowly committing demographic suicide.
Except for Malthusians and devotees of Paul Ehrlich’s 1965 “The Population Bomb” nonsense, all sentient economists realize that a slowly growing population is necessary for economic prosperity. The administration is asking our oldest and best allies to stop allowing immigration on top of their low fertility rates.
In “Through the Looking Glass,” Alice was told by the Queen that she could believe “six impossible things before breakfast!” That may be true in fantasy fiction but not in real life.
Paul Stam spent 16 years in the North Carolina General Assembly, the last 10 as minority leader, then majority leader and then speaker pro tem.
