RALEIGH — What’s old is new again. In this case, it’s another rematch for the Hurricanes, this time against the defending Stanley Cup champions, who swept Carolina in the Eastern Conference final two seasons ago.
The Panthers — who will head to Raleigh for Games 1 and 2 on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively — have one advantage the Hurricanes do not, and it’s a big one: Florida has won a championship and learned to ride out the highs and lows of a long a playoff run, as shown in the team’s Game 7 win in Toronto on Sunday.
Carolina, meanwhile, was surgical in the first two rounds, never really giving the Devils or the Capitals a chance to feel like they had any kind of control in their respective series. Chances are there isn’t another five-game gentlemen’s sweep on tap — these two teams will want to assert their style of play, and whichever team does it will likely advance to the Stanley Cup final.
About this season
During a home-and-home in late November, the Panthers reminded the Hurricanes who the team to beat in the East is, thumping Carolina 6-3 and 6-0 in those two games. No offense to Spencer Martin, but he got the start on consecutive nights in those games as both Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov were out with injuries.
The result was different on Jan. 2 in Sunrise, with Jaccob Slavin breaking a tie with 7½ minutes left in the third period in the Hurricanes’ 3-1 win.
Still, Florida was just one of four teams to hold an expected goals advantage at 5-on-5 against Carolina in their regular season meetings
Familiar faces
Mostly everyone across from the Hurricanes will be familiar, seeing that Florida has kept together much of its core since the teams met in the playoffs two years ago.
Only one player on Florida’s roster has played a game for Carolina, and that’s Eetu Luostarinen. The 26-year-old Finn was a second round pick of the Hurricanes in 2017 but played just eight games with the team before being traded to the Panthers in the trade that brought Vincent Trochek to Raleigh.
Defenseman Gustav Forsling, who has blossomed into a top-pairing defenseman in Florida, was with the Hurricanes organization in 2019-20 before being claimed on waivers by the Panthers in January 2021.
Hurricanes’ depth defenseman is the only link to Florida on the Carolina roster. The son of former Hurricanes Stanley Cup winner Cory, the younger Stillman was a fourth round pick of the Panthers in 2016 and played 43 games over three seasons with the team before bouncing to three other teams and landing in Raleigh.
Special teams
The Hurricanes’ penalty kill was the best in the league during the regular season, and it’s been the same in the playoffs. Carolina has allowed just two goals on 30 opportunities (93.3%), and one was a 5-on-3 goal.
The Panthers are No. 2 in the postseason, killing 89.5% (34 of 38) through 12 games. It wasn’t as good in the regular season, ranking 10th at 80.7%.
Carolina’s power play stumbled to 25th in the regular season, converting 18.7% of its chances. But the Hurricanes have been better in the playoffs, scoring on 28.1% of their man advantages to rank fourth and behind only Dallas (30.8%) among the four remaining teams.
Florida, meanwhile, was tied for 13th (23.5%, same as the recently eliminated Capitals) and ranks 10th of the 16 playoff teams at 20.5%.
X-factor
The adage that the economy dictates how a presidential election will unfold can apply to a series like this: It’s the goaltending, stupid.
Sergei Bobrovsky mystified the Hurricanes in the 2023 Eastern Conference final, allowing just six goals on 168 shots in the four-game sweep. The bubble burst on “Bob” in the Cup final that year, but he rebounded to lead Florida to the Cup last year.
This year, Bobrovsky has a .901 save percentage with a 2.31 goals-against average. According to MoneyPuck.com, his goals saved above expected per 60 is a pedestrian 0.149, indicating he’s just slightly outperformed expectations and is playing at about the same level he did in the regular season (0.135).
Andersen, meanwhile, has been the best goaltender in these playoffs. He’s won seven of nine starts, stopped .937 of the shots he’s faced and has a microscopic 1.36 goals-against average. His 1.386 goals saved above expected per 60 is easily the best in the playoffs. He was at 0.409 during the regular season, 12th among goalies with at least 10 starts.
Prediction
Carolina continues to prove people wrong. The Hurricanes were the betting favorite against New Jersey and Washington, but many hockey pundits still didn’t see them reaching the conference final for the third time in seven seasons. They are the actual underdog in this series (BetMGM has Florida as a -125 favorite.
To me, it’s a toss-up. If Carolina wins the goaltending battle, it likely wins the series. I expect a long series — seven games — and the Hurricanes would host that final game with a chance to reach the Cup final.
But this Panthers team still seems a bit too deep, and for everything Carolina did right this season, I think the best version of the team is still to come. Florida returns to a third straight Stanley Cup final by winning Game 7.
