North Carolinians love to reminisce about how their teachers used to bring the AV cart into the classroom, so they could watch the ACC Tournament while they were at school.
The cart will likely stay put this year. The general consensus about the state of the ACC this season is that the kids might as well break out their No. 2 pencils and take a standardized test or two while the games are going on at Charlotte’s Spectrum Center.
The last few years, national perception was that the league was down. This season, the numbers back that up. Based on the RPI, the ACC is ranked fifth—last among the elite power conferences and closer to a mid-major than cracking the top four.
The ACC’s RPI is closer to the Atlantic 10 than the Big East, closer to the Missouri Valley than the Big 12, to the Ivy League than the Big Ten, and closer to the SoCon than the SEC.
Entering the conference tournament, the ACC is projected to get three teams into the NCAA Tournament. That would be the fewest in a quarter century. There are two conference teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble. Even if both get in, five bids out of 18 teams would be the conference’s worst showing, from a percentage standpoint, since the tournament started seeding teams in 1979.
There’s a chance the ACC only gets one team seeded No. 4 or better. The league had multiple teams with top-4 seeds in every tournament from 1979 to 2021. This would be the third time in the last four seasons that it was limited to one.
Of course, once the March spotlight is lit, no one can match the ACC. The league has produced one third of all Final Four teams over the last three tournaments. Of course, two of those four teams—Miami (in 2023) and NC State (last year)—didn’t even qualify to participate in this year’s ACC Tournament.
Here’s what to watch for as the tournament tips off in Charlotte.
The best in the nation
While the ACC may be on the wane, Duke sits atop the national rankings. The Blue Devils open the week ranked No. 1 in the country and holding a nearly surefire No. 1 seed in the Big Dance. Duke has the likely national player of the year in Cooper Flagg, who led the team in every statistical category. Duke has also dominated the league, going 19-1 in the ACC and posting the best point differential of any team in any conference since Kentucky in 1954.
The Blue Devils have size, including seven-footer Khaman Maluach. They have outside shooting, led by Kon Knueppel. And they have depth, withstanding injuries to Tyrese Proctor and Maliq Brown during their ACC run. Both are back at 100% for the postseason.
The one potential concern for Duke is an unsettled coaching staff. Assistant coach Jai Lucas left the team after Saturday’s game against UNC, to take over as head coach at Miami. That means roles and responsibilities will be shuffled just as the team embarks on the most important stretch of the season.
The other NCAA locks
What a difference a year makes. Louisville was 8-24 last season, 3-17 and dead last in the conference. The Cardinals just wrapped up a 25-6 regular season, won 18 of 20 ACC games and earned the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament. Pat Kelsey is a lock for conference coach of the year and should get strong consideration for the national honor.
Clemson, at No. 3, is the only team with a win over Duke this season. A good run in Charlotte this week could earn the Tigers a spot in the top four seeds, along with the Blue Devils.
Bubble watch
UNC and Wake Forest have spent more than a month treading water on the “first four out” and “next four out” lists for most bracketologists. It’s yet another reminder of the current state of the ACC—there weren’t enough impressive wins available to allow the teams to move up in the rankings. That was very evident with the Tar Heels, who won six straight, all against Quad II, III and IV opponents, and didn’t help their case at all The Heels are 1-11 in Quad I games and need a run this week to get over the hump.
Wake, who has never made the tourney, despite several near misses, under coach Steve Forbes, has lost three of five and is in worse shape than Carolina. They’ll probably need to make it to Saturday to make the NCAA field.
The rest
ACC newcomers SMU and Stanford are the next two highest seeds in the tournament. Cal, the last team to qualify for the conference tourney, will play Tuesday, as will Florida State, who is bidding farewell to Gastonia native Leonard Hamilton, retiring as coach following the season’s close.
