The NCAA first expanded the tournament to allow multiple teams from each conference starting in 1975. For the next 27 years, the University of North Carolina was in the field for every single one.
As of 2022, when we were 47 years into the experiment, UNC had gotten a big 44 times, missing a total of three tournaments (four, if you count 2020, when the entire event was cancelled, as a miss).
Dean Smith never missed one. Neither did Bill Guthridge. Roy Williams missed one.
With Monday’s lopsided loss at Clemson, Carolina’s fifth in the last seven games, the Tar Heels are in real danger of missing their second tournament in three years.
The Heels are 14-11 and are rapidly running out of chances to impress the selection committee. The Clemson game ended a string of six games that included four Quad 1 games—the holy grail when it comes to building a tourney resume. UNC lost all four. For the season, the Tar Heels are 1-9 against Quad 1 games, and many of them have not been competitive. They lost by 15 at home to Alabama, by 13 at Louisville, by eight at Pitt and by 17 at Duke in a game that had a 30-point margin late in the second half. Clemson led by 16 at the half and never looked back, building a lead of more than 20.
The only remaining game projected to be a Quad 1 for the Heels is the regular season finale—a rematch with Duke at the Dean Dome.
Despite the struggles against top opponents, the Heels are still on the NCAA bubble. None of the major bracket projections have UNC in the field with just over a month to go until Selection Sunday, but they are just missing the cut. CBSSports, On3 and ESPN all had the Tar Heels among the first four out going into the Clemson game.
“It’s not a sense of urgency,” said UNC coach Hubert Davis after a one-point win over Pitt on Saturday helped keep the Heels under consideration. “It’s a sense of emergency.”
The Heels are not alone in the state. Most of North Carolina’s college programs will need a series of upsets in their respective conference tournaments in order to get a ticket to the big dance. The bracket projections have only one team that’s a sure thing. A second team is a consensus selection at the moment but far from safe. Here’s a look at the situation for the teams across the state.
Definitely in:
Duke 20-3, No. 2 NET (the ranking metric the selection committee uses to compare tourney hopefuls). The Blue Devils are a consensus No. 1 seed, although they slipped from one of the highest rated ones to the fourth of four top seeds in some bracket projections.
In for now:
Wake Forest 18-6, No. 59 NET. The Demon Deacons are one of the last four in and headed to the First Four in Dayton, according to ESPN and On3. CBS has the Deacs a little more securely in the field, giving them a 10 seed. If the Heels make the field, it will likely come at Wake’s expense.
Out for now:
UNC 14-11, No. 46 NET. The Heels are actually ranked higher than Wake in the NET, thanks to strength of schedule, but wins have been scarcer than they hoped, which explains their current predicament.
One-bid league teams in good position:
High Point 21-5, No. 94 NET. The Panthers lead the Big South by a half game. The league is only getting one bid, and both On3 and CCBS think they earn it with a conference tourney title, projecting a No. 13 seed for High Point.
UNC Asheville 17-7, No. 168 NET. The Bulldogs are a half game back in the Big South and projected by ESPN to get past High Point in the conference tournament, getting a No. 15 seed. At best, one of the two will go.
Only get in with a conference tournament title (in order of NET)
UNC Wilmington No. 103
NC State No. 120
Davidson No. 124
UNC Greensboro No. 137
App State No. 145
Elon No. 164
Campbell No. 171
East Carolina No. 184
Queens No. 204
Gardner-Webb No. 237
Charlotte No. 258
NC Central No. 290
NC A&T No. 337
Western Carolina No. 349
UNCW is 20-5. Davidson, UNC-G, App, Elon, Campbell, ECU and Queens all have winning records, but they’ll have to follow the 2023-24 NC State blueprint in order to make the field.
