RALEIGH — Earlier this year, longtime political consultant Carter Wrenn sat down for an exclusive interview with North State Journal to discuss his book, “Trail of the Serpent.” During that interview, Wrenn discussed the 2026 North Carolina Senate race in which Republican Sen. Thom Tillis will be seeking reelection.
In an interview on Spectrum News’ Tim Boynum’s “Tying It All Together” podcast, political consultant Paul Shumaker estimated the Tillis seat race might top $1 billion. Tillis’ 2020 race cost approximately $300 million.
Wrenn said he thought a billion sounded “a little bit through the roof for statewide races,” but he wouldn’t be surprised to see it rise to around $600 million because it will be a “huge fight” to control the Senate in 2026, especially since a lot of outside money will likely be flowing into the race.
“I think that Tillis, his biggest problem is probably the area his fate hinges on (Donald) Trump,” Wrenn said. “If Trump has a good two years and it’s not your classic sort of off-year election where people vote against the guy in the White House, then Tillis has just got a reasonable shot.”
“On the other hand, if it’s an election like 2010, where two years after (Barack) Obama was president, the undecided voters were voting against the Democrats because of Obama, I think if that happens to Tillis because Trump’s unpopular, he’s got a real problem there.”
Shumaker had also predicted former Gov. Roy Cooper would be the Democrat to challenge Tillis for his seat. In his farewell address, Cooper said he “wasn’t done.”
Cooper has yet to make any definitive claim to running in 2026. However, a report by the conservative outlet National Review says the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is trying to recruit him. According to the report, sources close to Cooper say he is “definitely going to consider the race but just has not made any decisions yet, and it’ll be a little bit before he does.”
“I don’t know about Roy,” Wrenn said, adding that if he were Tillis, he’d be praying it isn’t, citing the fact that Cooper has never lost an election and that “he’s sort of the last of the old Jim Hunt breed of Democrats from a small town in a rural area.”
“And he’s got a unique kind of strength as a candidate. People like him,” Wrenn said of Cooper. “I mean, there’s not two politicians in North Carolina who have a positive favorable rating. Roy does. I don’t know if he’ll run; I just don’t know well enough to say. But if he does, it will be a really tough race.”
Former Congressman Wiley Nickel, who represented North Carolina’s 13th District, is the only Democrat who has already filed for the race. Nickel filed his paperwork with the Federal Elections Committee in December 2023 after leaving Congress.
On the Republican side, Triad area businessman Andy Nilsson filed to run Jan. 14. Nilsson is known for co-founding the “Never Trump’’ group called “National Republicans” along with former North Carolina Supreme Court Associate Justice Bob Orr in 2019.
Speculation that former Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson might get into the race was dispelled when Robinson announced at the end of January that he was dropping his defamation lawsuit against CNN and wouldn’t seek elected office in the future.
“I will not run next year, nor do I have plans to seek elected office in the future,” Robinson said in a statement.
Wrenn said the fate of the Senate seat may be tied to the direction of the off-year election cycle, recalling the Democratic sweep in 1982, two years after Ronald Reagan was elected. The trend of electing the opposite party of a sitting president was repeated under President Bill Clinton in 1994 and in 2010 under Obama, and it occurred to some extent in both 2018 and 2022.
“But that’s, to me, the big first big question I’d have about the ’26 election,” Wrenn said. “Are we going to get an off-year election where people don’t want to vote for a Republican because they don’t like Trump?”
Wrenn said the economy was also an election driver, but foreign policy was a bigger factor.
“You know, the economy is always an issue. … Foreign policy … you know, when that comes along, people see a foreign threat that scares them,” said Wrenn. “That’s pretty powerful in politics; it’s why Reagan won.”
Wrenn also said the Republican Party needs “good, articulate candidates” and linked 2024 down-ballot losses, such as Dan Bishop’s failed bid for North Carolina attorney general against fellow Congressman Jeff Jackson, to Robinson’s campaign issues.
“I think Bishop lost because of Robinson,” said Wrenn. “I think Robinson hurt him.”
“He’s somebody, as a Republican, he scares me down the road,” Wrenn said of Jackson, adding, “I don’t know who we’ve got on the Republican side that could actually get in there and mount a threat to Tillis.”
