
As No. 3 Duke looks to be in another class from the rest of the ACC this season, Wake Forest wields an opportunity to shift narratives for both the conference’s top team and itself.
The Demon Deacons, who won five in a row prior to Tuesday’s matchup against North Carolina, will host the Blue Devils, who haven’t lost since November and is 8-0 in ACC play, at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum Saturday at 4:30 p.m.
For Duke, a win over the fourth-best team in the conference will further justify its wide margin as the ACC’s top dog, meanwhile, Wake Forest can earn some national respect as a tournament team and close the canyon seen to be separating the Blue Devils from the rest of the conference.
Although Wake Forest has played some of their best basketball at home this season (9-0 at home prior to North Carolina), they are heavy underdogs coming into the matchup. ESPN Analytics has given Duke an 88.7% chance to win.
The Demon Deacons, who are seeking their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2017, have much bigger stakes coming into the matchup, though. With Duke threatening its impressive home record, Wake Forest is 0-3 against ranked opponents (ranked at the time of play) this season and needs a quality win.
In those three losses to ranked opponents, Wake Forest averaged just under 55 points per game, which is much lower than its 70.9 points per outing throughout the season. Against No. 18 Florida, the Demon Deacons couldn’t overcome an abysmal 15% three-point shooting clip, and against No. 22 Texas A&M, Wake Forest shot just 28% from the field. At No. 25 Clemson, Wake Forest once again struggled from three, shooting at a 23% clip while also giving up 35 points off turnovers.
Of course, senior guard Hunter Sallis has been a problem for opposing defenses this season, averaging 19.5 points per game and seven straight games with at least 20 points as of Monday. He’s also been one of the Demon Deacons’ most consistent scorers, even in games against ranked teams. Despite the way he’s playing, Wake Forest’s overall offensive struggles against quality opponents isn’t something Sallis can score his way out of, though, especially against a very good defensive team like Duke.
The Blue Devils have the sixth-best scoring defense in the nation, holding opponents to just 59 points per game which is also good for first in the ACC. Freshman Cooper Flagg, graduate guard Sion James and freshman center Khaman Maluach anchor Duke’s defensive prowess with their length and ability to contest shots.
On the other end of the court, Duke finds no trouble putting points on the board, averaging the ACC’s third-best 82.3 points per game. The Blue Devils also make the most threes per game in the conference (10.4) while shooting from beyond the arc at a 37.5% clip. Flagg himself will be a task to slow down as he’s averaging a team-high 19.2 points per game and has scored over 20 points in four of Duke’s last six games.
Fortunately for Wake Forest, it’s defense has been one of its strengths this season.
Wake Forest gives up 65.7 points per game which ranks third in the conference. It also ranks high in opponent field goal percentage (39%, second in the ACC) and turnover margin (11.5, second in the ACC). Yet, in two of its ranked losses, the Demon Deacons have allowed more than what they’re used to on other nights.
Wake Forest may not be able to stop Duke’s offense, but it can slow it down by taking away open looks from three and forcing the ball out of Flagg’s hands.
Flagg has grown more and more comfortable being the focal point of the Blue Devils’ offense, and the Demon Deacons could win some crucial possessions if Duke’s supporting cast has to take big shots.
But, allowing other players to make big plays in a big game is where Duke can further prove their status over the rest of the conference. Freshman guard Kon Knueppel has been able to knock down the three at an efficient rate, and other players such as Isaiah Evans and Caleb Foster have come off the bench and provided some key contributions.
Throughout the season, Duke’s deep roster has proven to be too much for some of the best teams in the country, despite its youth.
The Blue Devils will try to continue that trend in a tough environment Saturday evening, but with Wake Forest’s need for a quality performance against a quality team, they should be ready for a fight.