BOONE — The College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this year. Perhaps no team is better poised to take advantage of that than the Appalachian State Mountaineers.
While ACC champion Florida State gained headlines last season for being snubbed by the playoff selection committee despite winning a league title, that was a nearly annual occurrence for App State. The Mountaineers have won 95 games over the last 10 seasons, more than any other college program that didn’t get selected for the playoff over that span.
Can App keep things rolling and take possession of the spot reserved in the CFP for the top Group of Five team?
Last year
While App had another successful season, the Mountaineers would have been left on the outside looking in, even if the expanded playoff field had arrived a year earlier. App lost four of its first seven games.
A five-game winning streak put the Mountaineers in the Sun Belt Championship Game, their fourth in the last six years. A 26-point loss to Troy put App State in the Cure Bowl, where it beat Miami, Ohio for its seventh bowl in in the last eight games (spanning nine seasons).
Changes and newcomers
Shawn Clark enters his fifth season as head coach, returning stability to the App State sideline. Before hiring Clark, the Mountaineers had gone through four coaches in the previous eight seasons, as Scott Satterfield and Eliah Drinkwitz were poached by power conference teams.
App’s stability extends to the roster, where the team will rely heavily on a core of returnees. There are a few significant newcomers, however. The Mountaineers added center Michael Marotta from Valdosta State, former Florida State guard Thomas Shrader and safety Myles Farmer, from Nebraska by way of Syracuse.
Players to watch
Quarterback Joey Aguilar led an offense that was second in the Sun Belt in points and yards. While the middle of his line will consist of transfers and new starters, but tackle Thornton Gentry is a veteran.
Aguilar’s top four receiving targets are also back, led by Kaedin Robinson and Christian Horn. Running back Nate Noel transferred, but returning backs combined for 1,300 yards behind Noel last season.
On defense, pass-rushing linebacker Nate Johnson leads the way, with corner Ethan Johnson (no relation) starring in the secondary.
Best case
The large number of returnees allows App to hit the ground running with a team that already has plenty of chemistry, on and off the field. App is able to pull at least one upset in its back-to-back road trips to Clemson and East Carolina in the season’s first month and rolls through the Sun belt. The team doesn’t have 2023 conference champ Troy or preseason pick to win the West Division Texas State on the schedule.
App was picked to win the Sun Belt East in the preseason media poll. If the Mountaineers live up to that expectation, they could be playing in the conference championship game for a shot at the coveted playoff berth.
Worst case
The unexpected death of right tackle Jack Murphy was an offseason blow to the team. In addition to missing him in the hearts, it leaves an absence on the field that will be hard to fill.
If the line, already rebuilding the interior, can’t come together, a schedule that includes Clemson, ECU and Liberty could saddle the Mountaineers with three early non-conference losses, ending their playoff hopes before Sun Belt play even begins.
Key games
Sept. 14 at East Carolina — The big game comes a week earlier, when App heads to Clemson. That’s what makes the trip to ECU one to watch. If the Mountaineers are suffering a post-Clemson hangover, a trip to Greenville could trip them up the following week.
Sept. 28 vs. Liberty —The Flames would have earned the playoff berth if the field had expanded last year. Liberty won its first 13 games and earned a Fiesta Bowl bid. Liberty doesn’t have the name recognition of Clemson, but it will be a tough challenge for Appalachian State.
Nov. 23 vs. James Madison—The week before the regular season finale, App could be playing for the East Division title against James Madison, who actually finished one spot higher in the standings last year but were ineligible to play for the conference title.
Outlook
App State has been one of the most consistent winners in college football in recent years, and, with a team full of familiar faces, there’s no reason not to expect that to continue. Look for App to post nine wins and compete for the chance to join the CFP.
