Seven weeks before the premiere debate of the 2024 GOP primary, anxiety is building that the event could prove messy and divisive for the party.
Some candidates, like former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, are struggling to meet fundraising and polling requirements to make it on stage. He and others are pushing back on a loyalty pledge the Republican Party is insisting candidates sign to participate. And the race’s frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, is considering boycotting and holding a competing event instead.
That’s turning what is typically the highly anticipated opener of the election season into a source of uncertainty for the candidates and broader party. The frustration is particularly acute for candidates who hoped to use the forum as a powerful opportunity to confront Trump and try to blunt his momentum.
The Republican National Committee has said that, in order to participate in the Aug. 23 debate in Milwaukee, candidates must have received contributions from at least 40,000 individual donors, with at least 200 unique donors in 20 or more states. They also must earn at least 1% in three high-quality national polls, or a mix of national and early-state polls, between July 1 and August 21.
Candidates will also have to sign a pledge “agreeing to support the eventual party nominee,” according to an RNC press release, and one agreeing not to participate in any non-RNC sanctioned debate for the remainder of the election cycle.
“Our criteria is very clear, we are ensuring quality polls are used to determine which candidates make the debate stage and we are confident that there will be enough polls for our candidates to qualify,” said RNC spokeswoman Emma Vaughn.
The candidates who say they have qualified so far include Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Some lesser-known candidates, such as conservative radio host Larry Elder, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, appear unlikely to make the cutoffs.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, who launched his campaign on June 7, has not yet released a tally of donors, but his campaign said it had raised “well into five digits” in the weeks since his announcement.
“Getting in late made it more difficult, but we’re confident we’ll get there,” said Pence spokesman Devin O’Malley.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who has also expressed confidence he will hit the benchmarks, has pitched himself as the candidate most qualified to directly take on Trump onstage. While Trump’s threats to boycott have complicated that argument, Christie’s campaign has nonetheless urged donors to give even $1 to help him qualify.
Anthony Scaramucci, the financier who served briefly as Trump’s White House communications director and is now supporting Christie, recently encouraged even those who have no intention of voting for the former New Jersey governor to nonetheless chip in.
“Whether you’re a Republican or Democrat, whether you would vote for Chris or wouldn’t vote for Chris, we need someone onstage to tell the truth and put a stop to this nonsense,” he said during a recent podcast interview with the candidate.
Trump, according to campaign officials, has yet to make a final decision on his plans. But he has indicated both publicly and privately that he is not inclined to participate, and aides have been considering options for an alternative event.
DeSantis said that he planned to participate in the debate “regardless” of Trump’s decision.
“I hope everybody who’s eligible comes. I think it’s an important part of the process and I look forward to being able to be on the stage,” he said in an interview with Fox News.
This wouldn’t be the first time Trump has skipped a major GOP debate. During his 2016 campaign, Trump boycotted the final GOP gathering before the Iowa caucuses and instead held his own campaign event, a flashy telethon-style gathering in Iowa that was billed as a fundraiser for veterans. While the event earned him headlines and drew attention away from his rivals, Trump went on to lose the Iowa caucuses to Ted Cruz — a loss some supporters blamed on his debate decision.
The RNC has so far declined to release the actual language of the pledge it intends to make candidates sign. It is expected to be similar to 2016, when candidates had to affirm that, if they did not win the nomination, they would “endorse the 2016 Republican presidential nominee regardless of who it is” and not run as an independent or accept the nomination of any other party.
So far, only former Texas Rep. Will Hurd has said definitely that he will not sign the pledge because he refuses to support Trump if he becomes the eventual nominee.
RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel has repeatedly defended the criteria, which came after so many candidates ran in 2016 that debates had to be split in half — with lower-polling candidates participating in an earlier forum.
“Not everybody deserves to be on that debate stage,” she said in a recent interview on Newsmax.
