Fantasy Start/Sit and NFL Week 1 picks

Picks for Week 1 of the NFL season.

Kirby Lee—X02835
Aug 27

Each week we’ll provide two start and two sit options from each position for the upcoming week in fantasy. To be clear: if you own Aaron Rodgers or Antonio Brown, you should start them. These recommendations should never supersede the obvious.START: Derek Carr, Raiders (at Saints) — This game has the highest over-under total in Vegas (51.5) and Carr, who was typically drafted as a backup or two-headed monster at quarterback, gets a perennially terrible Saints defense. One of the best plays in terms of second-tier quarterbacks this week.START: Matthew Stafford (at Colts) — The Colts defense is going to be bad anyway and it’s missing Vontae Davis for this game. Stafford should be winging the ball around and finding Marvin Jones/Golden Tate early. Big point total (51) means a potential shootout.SIT: Philip Rivers, Chargers (at Chiefs) — Love Rivers this yearSIT: Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins (at Seahawks) — Brutal opener for Tannehill. Don’t start anyone at the Seahawks unless you absolutely have to. Adam Gase will get some good stuff from Tannehill this year, but there’s no reason to play him here.Running BackSTART: Spencer Ware, Chiefs (vs. Chargers) — An investment in Ware was probably a fairly late-round investment and it could pay off handsomely in Week 1. Ware is a very nice runner, and it appears Jamaal Charles will miss the first week against a Chargers team that struggled against the run in the preseason. Ware is a dynamite flex option.START: Christine Michael, Seahawks (vs. Dolphins) — Same rule applies with Ware. You probably have a low investment in Michael and the Seahawks are going to feed him while bringing Thomas Rawls back from injury a little more slowly. Flex play or low-end RB2.SIT: Arian Foster, Dolphins (at Seahawks) — Not entirely sure how good Foster will look or how many carries he’ll get versus Jay Ajayi and hate him against a stout Seattle defense.SIT: Carlos Hyde, 49ers (vs. Rams) — The Los Angeles Rams, which still feels funny to say, have a great defensive line and could stifle up Hyde and the 49ers running game in this prime-time opener. Hyde was great last year in the opener so this is a risky move but there are better options.Wide ReceiverSTART: Marvin Jones, Lions (at Colts) — See Stafford above. The Lions are going to score plenty of points in a high-scoring game. Golden Tate works here as well.START: Michael Crabtree, Raiders (at Saints) — Notice a theme here? Same deal as Jones/Tate. If the Saints shift coverage to Amari Cooper, Crabtree could see a pile of targets.SIT: Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers (at Broncos) — Tough defense, really tough secondary and Ron Rivera says Benjamin might be on some kind of a snap count.SIT: Julian Edelman, Patriots (at Cardinals) — Tough defense, really tough secondary and Tom Brady isn’t starting. Jimmy Garoppolo could feed him, we suppose, but it’s a gamble.Tight EndSTART: Coby Fleener, Saints (vs. Raiders) — Back to the well on this likely high-scoring affair. Drew Brees should be chunking the ball around and his latest weapon should be one of the beneficiaries.SIT: Jimmy Graham, Seahawks (vs. Dolphins) — Maybe Graham is a bigger part of this offense in 2016, but it’s not worth finding out in the first week by getting zero points when the Seahawks run the ball 40 times and he isn’t targeted.DSTSTART: Eagles (vs. Browns) — Philadelphia might not be very good on offense this year, but there are a ton of weapons on the defensive side of the ball. Fletcher Cox and Co. should pressure Robert Griffin III frequently.SIT: Patriots (at Cardinals) — Normally a Bill Belichick-led defense is good to go in just about any week. But with the Pats potentially struggling on offense and Arizona having a ton of firepower, this is a good week to steer clear.NFL WEEK 1 LINESFalcons (-3) vs. Buccaneers
Over/under 48THE PICK: Tampa is a better team than people think and should have an improved pass rush. Take the points.Titans (+2) vs. Vikings 
Over/under 41THE PICK: Minnesota’s stacked on defense and in the run game, but will be adjusting at QB. Home dogs in Week 1 always and forever.Eagles (-3.5) vs. Browns 
Over/under 41THE PICK: The Carson Wentz Bowl! Cleveland is going to stink but Philly isn’t that much better than they are. Browns and the points.Jets (+2.5) vs. Bengals 
Over/under 41.5THE PICK: OK not all home dogs. The Bengals are severely undervalued, even though they’re getting almost a field goal in New York.Saints (-1) vs. Raiders
Over/under 51.5THE PICK: Shootout coming here, but it’s disrespectful for Drew Brees and Co. not to get more than a point. Home team here.Chiefs (-7) vs. Chargers 
Over/under 45THE PICK: We might not like Rivers in fantasy this week but a whole touchdown in a divisional game? Go Bolts.Ravens (-3) vs. Bills
Over/under 44.5THE PICK: Rex Ryan could be running a sinking ship this year but he gets up big for revenge games. Take the points.Texans (-6.5) vs. Bears 
Over/under 44THE PICK: The Texans are much improved on offense, but the Bears are an undervalued team and will be improved on defense. A touchdown is too much.Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Packers 
Over/under 48.5THE PICK: Total slap in the face to all the Jags offseason hype! Not only do they cover, they win straight up.Seahawks (-10.5) vs. Dolphins 
Over/under 44THE PICK: Blood in the water for the Seahawks on both sides of the ball. Major blowout potential.Cowboys (+1) vs. Giants 
Over/under 46THE PICK: Believe in Dak Prescott! Or, more accurately, believe in Ezekiel Elliott. Stunner coming for Dallas here.Colts (-3.5) vs. Lions 
Over/under 51THE PICK: Andrew Luck will come out swinging and Indy puts up a huge digit here to start 2016 off the way we expected last year to begin.Cardinals (-6) vs. Patriots 
Over/under 47.5THE PICK: Hard to bet against Bill Belichick when he has months to prepare, but it’s much easier to bet against him when he doesn’t have Tom Brady playing quarterback against one of the five best teams in the NFL.Redskins (+3.5) vs. Steelers 
Over/under 50.5THE PICK: Home dogs in prime time to start the season? It feels so wrong but it’s probably right. Redskins hold serve against the spread.49ers (+2.5) vs. Rams 
Over/under 43.5THE PICK: See above, except with much less exciting offenses. This could set football back a bit, but San Fransisco comes away cleaner.