Popular votes and their importance are debatable. The winner-take-all electoral votes in the swing states will determine who will be the next President of the United States. Many have already decided for whom to vote, but for some still deliberating, they may cast their ballot on how they feel about their overall financial situation.
With that in mind, let’s examine the housing market and economic conditions in key swing states. As a reference, home prices crashed and are now recovering and almost back to the prior peak set nearly a decade ago on a national basis. The homeownership rate, meanwhile, has fallen and is still falling according to the latest second quarter data. At the national level, the homeownership rate was 63.5 percent, which is a near 50-year low. But far fewer homeowners are in a distressed state of being behind on their mortgages. The below data are from the time of President Obama’s inauguration to now: the first quarter 2009 to either the first quarter of 2016 or to the second quarter of 2016, using the latest available data period.Colorado
Home prices are at a new peak and continue to rise. The typical home price is up 27 percent. That’s nice housing equity.
However, fewer people are benefitting from housing wealth. The homeownership rate has fallen from 69.8 percent to 62.0 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 4.5% to 1.2 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 15 percent, translating into 337,000 additional jobs.Florida
Home prices are recovering fast, but are still below the past peak due to the hard crash that occurred in the state. From the beginning of 2009 to today, home prices are up 6%. Compared to the peak, prices are still down 21 percent. A mixed conclusion on housing equity as it is a tad higher since President Obama entered office, but measurably down from the peak.
The homeownership rate has fallen from 71.3 percent to 63.8 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from a super high 15.7 percent to a still somewhat high 4.8 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 13 percent, translating into 946,000 additional jobs.Iowa
Home prices are at a new peak and continue to rise. The typical home price is up 9 percent. That’s stable and moderately higher housing equity.
But fewer people are benefitting from housing wealth. Homeownership rate has fallen from 72.8 percent to 68.1 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 3.1 percent to 1.2 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 5 percent, translating into 82,000 additional jobs.Michigan
Home prices are recovering, but are still below the past peak due to the hard crash that occurred in the state. From the beginning of 2009 to today, home prices are up 6 percent. Compared to the peak, prices are still down 9 percent. A mixed conclusion on housing equity as it is a tad higher since President Obama entered office, but measurably down from the peak.
The homeownership rate has fallen from 74.2 percent to 71.8 percent, but due to the very affordable home prices the state maintains a very high ownership rate.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 8.4% to 2.2 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 10 percent, translating into 383,000 additional jobs.Nevada
Home prices are recovering fast, but are still below the past peak due to the hard crash that occurred in the state. From the beginning of 2009 to today, home prices are up 6 percent. Compared to the peak, prices are still down 29 percent. A mixed conclusion on housing equity as it is a tad higher since President Obama entered office, but measurably down from the peak.
The homeownership rate has fallen from 63.3 percent to 54.8 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from a super high 13.7 percent to still somewhat high 4.2 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 8 percent, translating into 100,000 additional jobs.New Hampshire
Home prices are recovering very slowly. The typical home price is still down 2 percent from 2009 and down 10 percent from the peak. Voters are asking: who took my housing equity?
The homeownership rate has fallen from 76.5 percent to 73.8 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 2.6 percent to 1.4 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 5 percent, translating into 29,000 additional jobs.New Mexico
Home prices are recovering very slowly. The typical home price is still down 7 percent from 2009 and down 9 percent from the peak. Voters are asking: who took my housing equity?
The homeownership rate has fallen from 68.2 percent to 65.5 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 4.1 percent to 4.0 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 1 percent, translating into 7,000 additional jobs.North Carolina
Home prices are just re-touching the prior peak and continue to rise. The typical home price is the same now as back in early 2009 and the peak price few years earlier. That’s not a housing equity gain.
The homeownership rate has fallen from 69.3 percent to 67.0 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 4.4 percent to 2.6 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 9 percent, translating into 342,000 additional jobs.Ohio
Home prices are recovering very slowly. The typical home price is the same now as back in early 2009 but is down 3 percent from the peak. Voters are asking: who took my housing equity?
The homeownership rate has fallen from 69.7 percent to 65.9 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 7.7 percent to 3.9 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 6 percnet, translating into 312,000 additional jobs.Pennsylvania
Home prices are recovering very slowly. A typical home price is the same now as back in early 2009 but is down 1 percent from the peak. Voters are asking: who took my housing equity?
The homeownership rate has fallen from 72.4 percent to 69.1 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 5.0 percent to 4.1 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 4 percent, translating into 199,000 additional jobs.Virginia
Home prices are recovering very slowly. The typical home price is the same now as back in early 2009 and about the same as in the past peak year. That’s not a housing equity gain.
The homeownership rate has fallen from 70.7 percent to 66.0 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 4.4 percent to 2.0 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 6 percent, translating into 220,000 additional jobs.Wisconsin
Home prices are recovering very slowly. The typical home price is still down 2 percent from 2009 and down 4 percent from the peak. Voters are asking: who took my housing equity?
The homeownership rate has fallen from 70.3 percent to 65.1 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 5.4 percent to 2.7 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 5 percent, translating into 137,000 additional jobs.
To the degree that better economic and housing market conditions favor the status-quo and, hence, the incumbent party, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and Virginia leans toward Hillary Clinton. By contrast, not improving or worse conditions favor change and, hence, the opposition party, Donald Trump should make his case and campaign more in New Hampshire, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. The above viewpoints completely ignore social and cultural issues. Some would claim that New Hampshire, like every other New England state, will go to Clinton from marginal tipping votes on social and cultural issues while others will say North Carolina will be a solid Republican state over the same issues. Considering all the factors – be it economic, housing, social, cultural – according to the polls at the moment from Politico compilations, Nevada and Florida are very close. Ohio is dead-heat.
One state no one is discussing, but that could be the swing state of the year, is Utah. Why? One of the most Republican states, Utah did not like Donald Trump, giving him only 13 percent of the caucus votes with Ted Cruz and John Kasich obtaining a larger share. Many Utah residents have spent time abroad or know of people in foreign countries because of Mormon missionary activities and, hence, are less hostile toward new immigrants. They share views closely with Mitt Romney who has said he will not vote for Mr. Trump. Moreover, they know more about Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, because of his past governorship in the nearby state of New Mexico. Gary Johnson therefore may pull 20 percent of the vote. That means Hillary Clinton can make Utah competitive with only 40 percent of the Utah votes – a plausible scenario for the status quo candidate given the exceptional economic and housing market conditions of the state.Utah
Home prices are at a new peak and continue to rise. The typical home price is up 7 percent. That’s decent housing equity.
But fewer people are benefitting from housing wealth. Homeownership rate has fallen from 76.5 percent to 68.1 percent.
Existing homeowners are feeling less stress. Seriously delinquent mortgages fell from 4.5 percent to 1.7 percent.
The total number of payroll jobs has grown by 17 percent, translating into 206,000 additional jobs.
Lawrence Yun is the Chief Economist of National Association of Realtors. This article originally appeared on Forbes.com.
